Research Interests

 I mostly work on extinction problems.  I have modelled two different Bayesian approaches to estimate extinction based on a sighting record. Both these models formally account for uncertainty within the sightings records, which is a key advancement on existing models. Further, one of the models easily includes survey effort, and is easily implemented in an Excel Spreadsheet (please email me for a copy).

Another project I’m working on predicts which species considered extinct are likely to be rediscovered (Lazarus species). We consider various traits such as body mass and habitat elevation, to determine a) what species traits are linked to true extinction, and b) how different traits affect the time to rediscovery (for species which are incorrectly considered extinct). This knowledge can aid future decisions about classing a species as extinct, and identify protected areas likely to be harbouring species waiting to be rediscovered.

Lastly, I’d like to expand the role of partial differential equation in ecology. Partial differential equations dynamically include changes in space and time. This approach is obviously useful for many environmental applications. I am working on modelling the spread of cane toads in Australia, where the effect of changing temperature with time can be observed. This allows various climate change scenarios to be included when forecasting the spread of cane toads. The partial differential equation will be included within a Hierarchical Bayesian model to account for uncertainty in the data and parameters. | | +61(0)3 83448091 | @t_e_lee

About tamsinleeresearch

A mathematician amongst ecologists.
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